Clay Graubard and Andrew Eaddy presented their case for supporting people via technology as trust in institutions falls.
Baserate.io, the New Crypt-Based Prediction Market
Reports of Monkeypox have hit the headlines recently, but will it be the next pandemic? Will NATO and Russia finally get into direct conflict before the end of 2022? These are some of the questions that prediction markets can help to answer.
While it is impossible to tell how future events will unfold, it is possible to make a fair prediction based on some research and trend. The crypto-based prediction markets help to make the bets more explicit by allowing people to stake money based on what they believe will happen.
The founders of Baserate.io, Andrew Eaddy and Clay Graubard discussed this during the Consensus 2022 Festival in Texas. Their platform is a media and information firm utilizing forecasting technologies and prediction markets.
Let’s take the example, will NATO expand in 2022? The market is currently voting no. However, if those who voted no are wrong, it means that yes voters would make impressive returns.
“These are generally winner-take-all markets, and your probability of ‘crowd consensus’ is what people are willing to buy shares,” Graubard explained. In addition, he said that you should think about cents as an approximation of probability. “They’re saying there’s a 53% chance that NATO does not expand.”
The Prediction Market to Use Blockchain for Transparency and Immutability
Eddy emphasized that Blockchain technology would help to make market forecasts transparent, immutable and easy. “Some of the other accouterments with blockchain, like DeFi technology, yield farming and liquidity provision, will also help to get more users on the platforms and also help the platforms generate this sufficient liquidity and volume actually to produce good, high-quality information,” he added.
The whole idea of prediction markets is accountability. The markets help to reduce bias and enable more people to put “skin in the game.” You only bet on the outcome that you believe is going to happen. “Being accurate is more important than saying the right thing for a particular audience,” Graubard said.